Pre-tourney Rankings
West Coast
2017-18


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
9 Gonzaga 100.0%   3   30 - 4 17 - 1 30 - 4 17 - 1 +16.3      +8.1 9 +8.1 9 71.5 110 +16.4 11 +17.9 1
43 St. Mary's 38.5%   28 - 5 16 - 2 28 - 5 16 - 2 +10.5      +5.3 43 +5.3 43 60.9 340 +11.0 43 +15.3 2
80 BYU 0.4%   24 - 10 11 - 7 24 - 10 11 - 7 +6.9      +3.4 80 +3.4 80 67.1 229 +7.2 76 +3.5 3
130 San Diego 0.0%   17 - 13 9 - 9 17 - 13 9 - 9 +2.0      +1.0 130 +1.0 130 66.5 239 +2.3 132 +0.6 6
144 San Francisco 0.0%   17 - 15 9 - 9 17 - 15 9 - 9 +1.1      +0.6 144 +0.6 144 65.7 258 +1.4 148 +0.8 5
173 Pacific 0.0%   13 - 18 9 - 9 13 - 18 9 - 9 -0.5      -0.3 173 -0.3 173 66.1 248 -1.2 187 +1.0 4
231 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   10 - 20 5 - 13 10 - 20 5 - 13 -4.1      -2.0 231 -2.0 231 66.9 232 -4.9 246 -5.5 8
261 Santa Clara 0.0%   10 - 19 8 - 10 10 - 19 8 - 10 -6.0      -3.0 261 -3.0 261 62.3 331 -5.6 252 +0.1 7
269 Pepperdine 0.0%   5 - 26 2 - 16 5 - 26 2 - 16 -6.3      -3.1 269 -3.1 269 67.8 212 -10.6 319 -12.2 10
271 Portland 0.0%   7 - 22 4 - 14 7 - 22 4 - 14 -6.5      -3.2 271 -3.2 271 67.2 226 -7.1 278 -7.0 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.0 100.0
St. Mary's 2.0 100.0
BYU 3.0 100.0
San Diego 4.0 100.0
San Francisco 4.0 100.0
Pacific 4.0 100.0
Loyola Marymount 8.0 100.0
Santa Clara 7.0 100.0
Pepperdine 10.0 100.0
Portland 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 17 - 1 100.0
St. Mary's 16 - 2 100.0
BYU 11 - 7 100.0
San Diego 9 - 9 100.0
San Francisco 9 - 9 100.0
Pacific 9 - 9 100.0
Loyola Marymount 5 - 13 100.0
Santa Clara 8 - 10 100.0
Pepperdine 2 - 16 100.0
Portland 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0
St. Mary's
BYU
San Diego
San Francisco
Pacific
Loyola Marymount
Santa Clara
Pepperdine
Portland


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 3   0.5 2.1 26.6 40.5 24.2 6.0 0.1
St. Mary's 38.5% 0.0% 38.5% 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 8.6 25.0 0.8 61.5 38.5%
BYU 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.0 99.6 0.4%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 84.7% 53.1% 26.2% 13.2% 6.1% 2.3%
St. Mary's 38.5% 25.5% 26.3% 11.3% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
BYU 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 61.3 38.6 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 1.3 73.5 26.5 0.0
2nd Round 86.3% 1.0 13.7 76.6 9.7
Sweet Sixteen 54.8% 0.6 45.2 52.9 1.9
Elite Eight 27.2% 0.3 72.8 27.0 0.2
Final Four 13.4% 0.1 86.6 13.4 0.0
Final Game 6.2% 0.1 93.8 6.2
Champion 2.4% 0.0 97.7 2.4